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民间借贷利率红线,该不该“大幅下降”?

2020-07-28
375147
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LILVHONGXIANDIAOZHENGXUSHENZHIYOUSHEN。

0

ZAIMINJIANJIEDAILILVHONGXIANDESHEZHISHANG,SIFAJIESHIJUYOUQIANGZHIXINGHEPUSHIXING。CONGMUQIANWENZHOUMINJIANJIEDAILILVSHIJIQINGKUANGKAN,24%DELILVHONGXIANRU“DAFUXIAJIANG”DUISHICHANGDEYINGXIANGHUIFEICHANGDA,SHENZHIKENENGSHIDEQIFANERDABUDAOZHICHIXIAOWEIJINRONGDEXIAOGUO。

LILVHONGXIANDIAOZHENGXUSHENZHIYOUSHEN,ERZHENDUIXINGDE,CHAYIHUADE,JIEDUANXINGDELILVXIANZHICUOSHI,JIANYIJIAOJIJINRONGJIANGUANBUMENLINGHUOTUIJIN。


CHUPIN|LINGYIZHIKU

ZUOZHE|YUBAICHENG


SHOUYIQINGYINGXIANGBENJIUBUPINGJINGDEJIEDAISHICHANG,BEIZAICIZHIRULEYIMEIZHONGBANGZHADAN。

7YUE22RI,ZUIGAOFAYUANHEFAGAIWEIFABUDE《GUANYUWEIXINSHIDAIJIAKUAIWANSHANSHEHUIZHUYISHICHANGJINGJITIZHITIGONGSIFAFUWUHEBAOZHANGDEYIJIAN》ZHONGTIDAO,YAO“DAFUDUJIANGDIMINJIANJIEDAILILVDESIFABAOHUSHANGXIAN”。

HUASUIDUANQUEYICHANGZHONGYAO。5NIANLAI,ZUOYOUMINJIANJIEDAISHICHANGLILVDE24%HE36%LIANGTIAOHONGXIAN,YIJI“LIANGXIANSANQU”YUANZE,KENENGHUICHUXIANZHONGDABIANHUA。RUGUOZHENRUCI,QIYINGXIANGFANWEIJIANGYUANBUJINMINJIANJIEDAISHICHANG。

1

“两线三区”的5年

XIANLAIKANXIAMUQIANSIFASHANGDEMINJIANJIEDAILILVHONGXIAN。

2015NIAN8YUE6RI,ZUIGAOFAFABULE《GUANYUSHENLIMINJIANJIEDAIANJIANSHIYONGFALVRUOGANWENTIDEGUIDING》,QIZHONGHEXINNEIRONGZHIYISHIGAIBIANLECIQIAN“YIJIZHUNDAIKUANLILVDESIBEIZUOWEILILVBAOHUSHANGXIAN”DESIFAZHENGCE,QUEDINGLEMINJIANJIEDAILILV“LIANGXIANSANQU”DEYUANZE。ZHEIYISIFAJIESHIYEBEIRENWEISHIMINJIANJIEDAIYANGGUANGHUADELINMENYIJIAOJIBENWANCHENG。

JUTILAISHUO,“LIANGXIANSANQU”DEYUANZESHI:ZAISIFARENDINGZHONG,YINIANLILV24%HE36%WEILIANGTIAOHONGXIAN;ZHEILIANGTIAOXIANHUAFENWEISANGEQUYU,1、24%YIXIADELIXISHOUFALVBAOHU;2、ZAICHAOGUO24%BUDAO36%ZHIJIANWEIZIRANZHAIWUQU,YIJINGZHIFUDELIXIBUNENGQINGQIUFANHAI,MEIYOUZHIFUBUDEYAOQIUZHIFU;3、CHAOGUO36%WEIWUXIAOQU,YIJINGZHIFUDELIXIKEYIQINGQIUFANHAI。

SHIRENZUIGAORENMINFAYUANSHENPANWEIYUANHUIZHUANZHIWEIYUANDEDUWANHUADANGSHIJIESHI,2013NIAN11YUE,ZHONGGONGSHIBAJIESANZHONGQUANHUIQUEDINGLEJINRONGSHICHANGHUAGAIGE,QIZHONGYIGEHENZHONGYAODEFANGMIANJIUSHILILVSHICHANGHUA。“DANSHI,LILVSHICHANGHUAJUEBUYIWEIZHELILVWUXIANHUA,GENGBUYIWEIZHELILVWUXUHUA,BIXUDUIMINJIANJIEDAILILVDESHANGXIANJINXINGGUANKONG。”

DUWANHUADANGSHICHENG,DUIMINJIANJIEDAILILVDEGUANZHI,CHUYINGDANGKAOLVZHENGFUJIJINRONGJIANGUANBUMENJIANGUANDEBIANLI,HAIYAOKAOLVZUOWEISHICHANGZHUTIDEJIEDAISHUANGFANGDEZHENZHENGXUQIU。24%DELILVSHIZHANGQIYILAIZHONGGUOZAISHENPANSHIJIANZHONGSUOQUELIDEYIGEZHIFABIAOZHUN,SHIJISHANGYESHICONGGUZHIJINZAIMINJIANLILVFANGMIANDEYITIAOGUIZE。

2015NIAN,GANGHAOSHIMINJIANJIEDAIYANGGUANGHUAQIBU,HULIANWANGJINRONGKAISHIKUAISUFAZHANDEYINIAN。ZUIGAOFAMINJIANJIEDAILILV“LIANGXIANSANQU”DEYUANZEXUNSUBEISHICHANGJIESHOU,CHENGWEIMINJIANJIEDAIJIGOUKAIZHANYEWUDELILVZHIYIN。TONGSHI,GELEICHUANGXINXINGDECHIPAIDAIKUANJIGOU,BIRUXIAOEDAIKUANGONGSI、XIAOFEIJINRONGGONGSIDENGYEYICILILVWEIZHUNSHENGKAIZHANYEWU。

ZAIJIEXIALAIDEJINIAN,SUIRANHULIANWANGJINRONGLUANXIANGPINFA,FENGXIANSHIJIANBUDUAN,DANSHICHANGJINGGUOBUDUANDEZHUANXIANGZHENGZHIQUEYIRANXIANGQIAN,MINJIANJIEDAIYANGGUANGHUARENGRANHUODELEZHANGZUFAZHAN,XIAOWEIQIYEHEPUHUIRENQUNDEJIEKUANXUQIUBUDUANDEDAOMANZU,BINGXINGCHENGLEYIPIJUYOUDAIBIAOXINGDEXINXINGJIEDAIFUWUJIGOU。JIEZHIMUQIAN,GUONEIYIJINGYOU26JIAXIAOFEIJINRONGGONGSI、200DUOJIAWANGLUOXIAODAIGONGSIYIJIDALIANGDEJINRONGKEJIFUWUJIGOU,CHENGWEICHUANTONGJINRONGDEYOUYIBUCHONGHEHEZUOHUOBAN。

2

利率红线“大幅下降”的初衷

ZAI5NIANHOUDE2020NIAN7YUE22RI,ZUIGAOFALIANHEFAGAIWEIGONGTONGFABUDE《GUANYUWEIXINSHIDAIJIAKUAIWANSHANSHEHUIZHUYISHICHANGJINGJITIZHITIGONGSIFAFUWUHEBAOZHANGDEYIJIAN》ZHONGTICHU,ZHUAJINXIUGAIWANSHANGUANYUSHENLIMINJIANJIEDAIANJIANSHIYONGFALVWENTIDESIFAJIESHI,DAFUDUJIANGDIMINJIANJIEDAILILVDESIFABAOHUSHANGXIAN,JIANJUEFOUDINGGAOLIZHUANDAIXINGWEI、WEIFAFANGDAIXINGWEIDEXIAOLI,WEIHUJINRONGSHICHANGZHIXU,FUWUSHITIJINGJIFAZHAN。

SUIRANXINXIHAIHENYOUXIAN,DANQIZHONG“DAFUDUJIANGDIMINJIANJIEDAILILVDESIFABAOHUSHANGXIAN”HAISHIYINFALEXINGYEDEJIDUGUANZHU。YIXIEXIAODAIGONGSIDENGJIGOUDANXIN,LILVZAIDAFUXIAJIANG,YEWUMEIFAZUOLE。

DANGXIASHOU “LIANGXIANSANQU”LILVYINGXIANGDEJIEDAIYEWUXIANGGUANZHE,JIYOUXIAOFEIJINRONGGONGSI、XIAODAIGONGSIDENGCHIPAIJIGOU,YEBAOKUOJIYINXINGTIGONGFUWUDEJINRONGKEJIGONGSIYIJIMINJIANJIEDAIZHE,WULUNSHIJIGOUSHULIANGHAISHIGUIMO,YIWANQUANBUTONGYU5NIANQIAN。

NEIME,ZUIGAOFAHEFAGAIWEICISHITICHU“DAFUJIANGDIMINJIANJIEDAILILVSIFABAOHUSHANGXIAN”DECHUZHONGSHISHENME?

ZUIGAORENMINFAYUANMINYITINGTINGZHANGZHENGXUELINRIQIANBIAOSHI,“ZAIDANGQIANYIQINGFANGKONGCHANGTAIHUAYIJIWOGUOJINGJIYOUGAOSUZENGZHANGXIANGGAOZHILIANGFAZHANDEDAXINGSHIXIA,JIANGDIMINJIANJIEDAILILVBAOHUSHANGXIANDUIYUSHUJIEQIYERONGZINAN、RONGZIGUIYIJICONGYUANTOUSHANGFANGZHI‘TAOLUDAI’‘XUJIADAI’JUYOUJIJIYIYI,YESHIZUIYOUXIAODEJIEJUEFANGAN。”

GAOLILVDEYOUHUOQUESHISHI“TAOLUDAI”DENGZISHENGDEWENCHUANG,“TAOLUDAI”ZHETINGERZOUXIAN,SHIJILILVWANGWANGBILILVBAOHUSHANGXIANHAIYAOGAO。JINJINIAN,MINJIANJIEDAIYOUJIGEDULIU。ZAI2018NIAN4YUEYINBAOJIAN、GONGANBU、GUOJIASHICHANGZONGJUHEYANGXINGLIANHEFABUDE《GUANYUGUIFANMINJIANJIEDAIXINGWEI WEIHUJINGJIJINRONGZHIXUYOUGUANSHIXIANGDETONGZHI》ZHONG,ZHICHU5GEFANGMIANWENTI:FEIFAJIZIFAFANGMINJIANDAIKUAN;BAOLICUISHOU;TAOQUJINRONGJIGOUXINDAIZIJIN,ZAIGAOLIZHUANDAI;MIANXIANGXUESHENGFEIFAFANGDAI;YINXINGYEJINRONGJIGOUCONGYERENYUANZUOWEIZHUYAOCHENGYUANHUOSHIJIKONGZHIREN,KAIZHANYOUZUZHIDEMINJIANJIEDAI。DANZHEIXIEWEIFAWEIGUIWENTI,GENGDUOYINGGAIZHIJIEYIKAOJIAQIANGJIANGUANHEZHIFALIDULAIDAJI。

ERXIAOWEIQIYERONGZINAN,RONGZIGUIWENTI,BEICHENGWEISHIJIEXINGNANTI,YAOJIEJUEZESHIYIGEXITONGGONGCHENG。XIAOWEIQIYEYINWEIJINGYINGBODONGDA,KANGFENGXIANNENGLIBUZU,TONGSHIXINYONGSHUJUSHAO、QUESHAODIYAWU,ZHEISHIDEXIAOWEIDAIKUANNAN,LILVGAO,ZHEISHISHICHANGZHANGQIBOYIDEJIEGUO。RUGUODAFUJIANGDILILVZHIHOU,JIEDAIJIGOUBUNENGWEICHIYINGLIERTUICHU,SUIRANBIAOMIANSHANGRONGZI“BUGUI”LE,DANXIAOWEIQIYEDERONGZINANDEWENTIKONGHUIJIAJU。

YINCI,LILVKENENGBINGFEISHANGSHUWENTIDEZUIJIAODIAN。“DAFUXIADIAO”LILVHONGXIAN,SHIFOUHUIJIUNENGSHUJIESHANGSHUWENTI,RENGXUGUANCHA。

3

影响将波及整个新金融体系

ZHONGGUOMINJIANJIEDAILILVDEWENTI,SHIJIYINGXIANGDAODESHIZHENGGEXINJINRONGTIXI。

FAZHANMINJIANJIEDAISHICHANG,BENZHISHIWEILEJIEJUEXIAOWEIQIYE、PUHUIRENQUNDENGZHANGWEIYONGHUDEJINRONGXUQIU,ZUOWEICHUANTONGJINRONGDEBUCHONG,TISHENGJINRONGDEPUHUIXING。RUJIN,YINXING、XIAOFEIJINRONGGONGSI、XIAOEDAIKUANGONGSIDENGGELEICHIPAIJIGOUYIJIZHUDAIGONGSI,JUNZAIFUWUZHEIBUFENKEQUN。YIXIAOEDAIKUANGONGSI、XIAOFEIJINRONGGONGSIDENGDAIBIAODEXINJINRONGJIGOU,GENGSHIZHUYAOJUJIAOYUCI,ERQIYEWUYIJUDELILVHONGXIANBIAOZHUN,JIUSHI24%HE36%。YINCI,LILVHONGXIANDEDIAOZHENG,YINGXIANGMIANJUEBUZHIYUXIAYIDEMINJIANJIEDAINEIMEJIANDAN。

SHIJISHANG,YIXIAOEDAIKUANGONGSIWEIDAIBIAODEXINJINRONGJIGOU,JINJINIANSHENGCUNBUYI。7YUE24RI,YANGXINGFABUDE2020NIANSHANGBANNIANTONGJISHUJUBAOGAOXIANSHI,JIEZHI2020NIAN6YUEMO,QUANGUOGONGYOUXIAOEDAIKUANGONGSI7333JIA,TONGBIJIANSHAOLE464JIA,DAIKUANYUE8841YIYUAN,TONGBIJIANSHAOLE400YIYUAN。XIAODAIGONGSIDESHULIANGYILIANXU19GEJIDUXIAJIANG,HUIDAOLE2013NIANDESHUIPING,DAIKUANYUEYESHICHIXUXIAJIANGZHONG。

图1:全国小贷公司数量及贷款余额趋势(单位:亿元)

1

数据来源:wind,零壹智库

XIAODAIGONGSISHIMINJIANJIEDAIJIGOUDESUOYING。ZAIJINNIANYIQINGTUFABINGQIEFANGYICHANGTAIHUADEHUANJINGXIA,XIAOWEIJINRONGHEPUHUIJINRONGFUWUJIGOUSHENGCUNYALIJIADA,YIFANGMIANJINGYINGCHENGBENZENGJIA,LINGYIFANGMIANHUAIZHANGLVCHENGXIANSHANGSHENGQUSHI。KEYIYUJIAN,DAFUJIANGDILILVHONGXIAN,JIANGDAILAIDESHIXIAOWEIJINRONGFUWUJIGOUCHANPINHECELVEDEDIAOZHENG,HUOQUYOUZHIYONGHUGENGNAN,FANGDAILIANGJINYIBUXIAJIANG,SHOUDAIDUANDAIDEYUQIHUIDAOZHIJIEDUANXINGHUAIZHANGLVJINYIBUSHANGSHENG,JINRONGDECHUANDAOJIZHIJIANGSHIZHEIZHONGYINGXIANGKUOSANDAOGELEIXIAOWEIJINRONGFUWUJIGOU。

4

现有利率红线是否合理

BEICHENGWEIMINJIANJIEDAILILVFENGXIANGBIAODE“WENZHOUZHISHU”,NENGZHIGUANFANYINGMINJIANJIEDAILILVDEZHENSHISHUIPING。WENZHOUZHISHUSHIYOUWENZHOUSHIRENMINZHENGFUZHUBAN,WENZHOUSHIJINRONGBANFUZEXINXICAIJI、ZHISHUJISUAN、XITONGYUNSUANDENGJICHUGONGZUO。2012NIAN,WENZHOUMINJIANRONGZIZONGHELILVZHISHUZHENGSHIDUIWAIFABU,MUQIANMEIRIGENGXIN。WENZHOUMINJIANRONGZILILVZHISHUGONGYOUJIN400GEJIANCEDIAN,SHEJIXIAOEDAIKUANGONGSI、MINJIANZIBENGUANLIGONGSI、MINJIANJIEDAIFUWUZHONGXIN、NONGCUNZIJINHUZHUHUIDENG。

CONGWENZHOULILVZHISHUBIANHUAKAN,2012NIANYILAI,WENZHOUMINJIANJIEDAILILVCHENGXIANPINGWENBODONGHUOHUANMANXIAJIANGTAISHI,MUQIANLILVSHUIPINGZHENGTISHANGZAI10%-25%YINEI,ZAIGEBIEDESHIJIANLI,DUANQIJIEKUANLILVHUIDUANZANTUPO25%。CONGQUANGUOLAIKAN,WENZHOUSHUYUMINJIANJIEDAIFADADEDIQU,MINJIANRONGZIHUOYUE,QILILVSHUIPINGZAIQUANGUOJUYOUYIDINGDEZHIYINXING,ERZAIZIJINLIUDONGXINGRUODEDIQU,MINJIANJIEDAISHIJILILVHUIGENGGAO。

图2:温州民间融资综合利率走势(按机构)

2

数据来源:wind,零壹智库

图3:温州民间融资综合利率走势(按期限)

3

数据来源:wind,零壹智库

CONGWENZHOUMINJIANRONGZIZONGHELILVDEZOUSHI,YIJIJINJINIANXINXINGJIEDAIJIGOUSHIJIQINGKUANGKAN,JIEDAILILVQUEYOUXIAJIANGQUSHI,DANZHEIYIGUOCHENGSHISHICHANGHUADE,SHIJIANJINDE,SHIYUJINGJIQINGKUANGJIJIEDAIJISHUJINBUXIANGGUANDE。ERYINWEIKEQUNDEBUDUANXIACHEN,YUNYINGCHENGBENHEHUAIZHANGLVDENGYUANYIN,MUQIANSHANGYOUBUSHAOJIGOUNANYIWANQUANDADAO24%DELILVHONGXIAN。GENGHEKUANG,YINXINGDEXINYONGKADEQUXIANLILVYEZAINIANHUA18%ZUOYOU。

YINCI,RUGUOFUWUKEQUNBUBIANSHENZHIGENGJIAXIACHEN,LILVHONGXIANDE“DAFUXIADIAO”DEKONGJIANYOUXIAN。SHICHANGKENDINGBINGBUXIWANGKANJIAN,MINJIANJIEDAIBIANCHENGSHAOSHUKEQUNCAINENGXIANGSHOUDEJIAODILILVDEJINRONGFUWU,NEIYUCHUANTONGJINRONGFUWURUHEXINGCHENGCHABIE?DUOCENGCIDEJIEDAIFUWUSHICHANGYEJIANGWUCONGTANQI。

5

如何真正降低借贷利率?

JINGGUODUONIANYANGGUANGHUADETANSUOHEJISHUCHUANGXIN,JIANGUANFANGBUDUANDEZHIDINGGUIFANDAJIGAOLIDAI,MINJIANJIEDAILILVYICHENGXIANHUANMANXIAJIANGQUSHI。TEBIESHIZAIXIANSHANGJIEKUANLINGYU,ZAIXIANJINDAIZHENGDUNZHIHOU,JINRONGJIANGUANFANGMINGQUEJINRONGYEWUCHIPAIJINGYING,ZAIJIANGUANFANG、ZHIFAJIGOU、CHIPAIJIGOUYIJIZHUDAIJIGOUDEGONGTONGNULIXIA,JIEKUANRENZONGHECHENGBENDAFUXIAJIANG,YIYOUBUSHAOJIGOUKEYIKONGZHIZAI24%SHENZHIGENGDIFANWEIZHINEI。

DANZHEIBINGBUYIWEIZHEYIDINGYAOJIANGSIFAJIESHIZHONGDELILVHONGXIANDINGDEFEICHANGDI。WOMENGENGXIWANGKANDAO,JIEDAISHICHANGJINXINGYOUXIAODEDUOCENGCILILVDINGJIA,ZAIPUDEQIANTIXIAHUIJIGENGDUOXIAOWEIQIYEHEGEREN。SHIJISHANG,SHICHANGQIANTIXIADELILVPUHUI,YIDINGSHIJIEDAIJISHUGEXIN、ZHENGXINJICHUSHESHITISHENGHEGUANLIJINGXIHUA、XINXITOUMINGHUADEJIEGUO。

JIEKUANLILVSHIMINJIANJIEDAIJIGOUDEHEXINJINGZHENGLI。DANGSHICHANGJINGZHENGCHONGFEN,XINXITOUMING,TONGYANGZIZHIDEJIEKUANREN,KENDINGHUIXIANGDICHENGBEN(BUZHILILV,YEBAOKUOSHIJIAN、TIYANDENGCHENGBEN)DEJIGOUJUJI。JIANGUANZUIXUYAOZUODE,SHIDAJIANZHENGXINHESHUJUJICHUSHESHI,DAJITAOFEIZHAIHETAOLUDAIDENGRAOLUANSHICHANGDEFEIFAXINGWEI,DIAOJIESHICHANGSHILINGDEBUFEN。

7YUE17RI,YINBAOJIANHUIZHENGSHIFABULE《SHANGYEYINXINGHULIANWANGDAIKUANGUANLIZANXINGBANFA》,QIZHONGDUIYINXINGHULIANWANGDAIKUANJINXINGLEZHUDUOGUIFAN,MINJIANJIEDAIFUWUJIGOUYUYINXINGDEHEZUOYEJIANGJINRUXINDEJIEDUAN。YIWEIYINXINGTIGONGZHUDAIFUWUDEJINRONGKEJIGONGSIWEILI,ZAISHICHANGJINGZHENG,HEGUIYAOQIUHEZHINENGJIEDAIJISHUDETUIDONGZHIXIA,XIANSHANGJIEDAICHANPINJIANGCONGDANYILILV,DAOCHABIEDINGJIA,CONGJIAOGAOLILV,DAOFUHEYINXINGHEZUOJIGOUYAOQIU,CHANPINCONGCUFANGDAOHEGUI,WANCHENGZHENZHENGDEKEJIFUWUJINRONGDETUIBIAN。

MINJIANJIEDAIDESIFAJIESHIJUYOUQIANGZHIXINGHEPUSHIXING,LILVHONGXIANYIDANQUELI,QIYINGXIANGJIANGSHIGANGXINGERSHENYUANDE。YINCI,LILVHONGXIANDEDIAOZHENGXUSHENZHIYOUSHEN,XUGENJUSHICHANGZHENSHILILVQINGKUANGZHUBUTUIJIN,ERZHENDUIXINGDE,CHAYIHUADE,JIEDUANXINGDELILVXIANZHICUOSHI,JIANYIJIAOJIJINRONGJIANGUANBUMENLINGHUOTUIJIN。

(BENWENZUOZHEWEILINGYIYANJIUYUANYUANZHANG)

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